Business & Markets — July 14, 2026

Fed July rate hike odds rise. Markets raised the probability of a July Federal Reserve rate hike after oil prices jumped on the Strait of Hormuz escalation. A key June inflation print lands Tuesday.

Per CNBC, the shift in expectations followed a spike in oil prices tied to the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that could feed through to consumer prices. That puts added weight on Tuesday's June inflation reading, the next major data point that could either reinforce or undercut traders' bets on a move at the Fed's July meeting.

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China's June exports top forecasts. China's export growth beat forecasts in June, lifted by strong semiconductor demand and a rush to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of potential new tariffs.

Reuters attributed much of the strength to the AI boom, with semiconductor shipments a key driver of the better-than-expected June figures. The report also pointed to front-loading, as exporters rushed goods to the United States before potential new tariffs take effect, suggesting some of the month's strength reflects orders pulled forward rather than underlying demand.

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AI demand drives chip profit boom. AI infrastructure demand is driving a $700 billion profit boom across the semiconductor sector, led by memory maker Micron and chip giant Nvidia.

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States sue to block Paramount-Warner deal. Twelve state attorneys general filed an antitrust suit and sought a temporary restraining order to stop Paramount Skydance's takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery from closing. The states allege the merger would extinguish competition in Hollywood.

The coalition, led by California according to AP News, is asking a court for a temporary restraining order to keep the $81 billion transaction from closing while the antitrust case proceeds. The states argue in their filing that combining the two studios would, in their words, extinguish competition in Hollywood. The outcome of the restraining-order request will determine whether the deal can close in the near term.

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