Israel Votes in First Election Since Oct. 7

The context

This is the first time Israelis have gone to the polls nationally since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas led attacks on Israel that set off the war in Gaza. The intervening period has reshaped Israeli politics, and the election has become a referendum of sorts on the direction of the country since then, with security and democracy at the center of the debate, according to the BBC.

Netanyahu, leader of Likud, is seeking to keep his coalition in power. His main challenger, Eisenkot, comes from the military rather than party politics, having previously served as the armed forces' top commander. Axios described the vote as among the most consequential in Israel's history. Pre-election polling has consistently shown the two blocs running neck and neck, and the material available does not indicate either side holding a durable advantage heading into election day.

Why it matters

The result will determine who leads Israel through the aftermath of the Gaza war and set the tone for its security policy and its handling of questions about democratic institutions that dominated the campaign. The outcome also carries consequences beyond Israel's borders, including for the country's alliance with the United States and the broader regional confrontation involving Iran. Because the blocs are so evenly matched, even a small shift in turnout, including from the citizens returning from overseas to vote, could decide which coalition governs.

What’s next

Polls are open today, and attention will turn first to results and seat counts. The central question is whether either bloc reaches a governing majority. If neither does, as the BBC reported is possible, parties would enter coalition negotiations that could stretch over weeks before a new government is sworn in. What concessions smaller parties demand, and which bloc can assemble enough partners, will determine the outcome.