Brazil Votes in Tight Lula-Bolsonaro Presidential Runoff

The context

Lula, a left-of-center veteran, served as president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023. He is now seeking a fourth non-consecutive term on a platform of continuing social policies aimed at boosting employment and reducing poverty. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator since 2019, is making his first run for the presidency. He has campaigned on a crackdown on organized crime, tax and public spending cuts, and what DW described as a political fresh start. He has also pledged to free his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence, currently under house arrest due to ill health, for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The race unfolds against a backdrop of corruption scandals, economic decline and accusations of U.S. interference, which Washington denies. In the first round, more than 33 million of the nearly 160 million eligible voters abstained, prompting Lula supporters to stage large rallies to boost turnout. President Donald Trump called Bolsonaro's first-round finish a "very big" victory.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Latin America's largest country shifts right or keeps a leftist government, with direct consequences for U.S. relations. Bolsonaro is an ally of the United States, and DW reported his victory could expand Washington's ability to grow its influence in Latin America. Lula, by contrast, has opposed Trump on trade and security, and a fourth Lula term would likely create hurdles for Washington. Lula framed the choice in those terms himself, telling supporters voters would pick between the candidate who kissed the Brazilian flag or the American flag.

What’s next

Preliminary results are expected Sunday night, according to DW. The winner needs more than 50 percent of the vote. Key questions include whether Lula can overcome a first-round deficit no Brazilian candidate has ever reversed, and how turnout compares with the first round, when more than 33 million eligible voters abstained. If Bolsonaro wins, watch whether he moves on his pledge to free his father.